Upper Willamette may soon bid farewell to fire crews as ‘significant rain’ moves in from Pacific

By DOUG BATES/Editor/The Herald –We’ll know more after this weekend, but the National Weather Service says that a “potent Pacific frontal system” is heading for the Upper Willamette and surrounding Cascades, possibly bringing enough drenching rains to bring an end to the region’s 2021 fire season.

“This front will usher in cool, wet and blustery weather to the entire forecast area by Friday night, followed by cool, showery conditions through the weekend,” the federal agency said in a forecast issued Wednesday, Sept. 15. “The front will have an atmospheric river associated with it, so rain will be locally heavy, especially in orographically (mountain-related) favored portions of the Coast Range and Cascades, where over two inches of rain is possible.”

That may come as bad news for football fans planning to attend games this weekend — especially the throng expected Saturday evening at Autzen Stadium for the Oregon Ducks’ tilt with Stony Brook. However, it’s welcome news for the hundreds of wildland firefighters still battling the Middle Fork Complex of fires north of Oakridge and Westfir.

The forecast comes after a day of favorable weather conditions for those crews.

“We’re still on track to receive substantial rainfall on the fire on Friday, Saturday and Sunday,” meteorologist Dave Schallenberger said in the fire command’s daily briefing Wednesday morning, Sept. 15.

Incident Commander Shawn Sheldon stopped short of saying the rains could end the region’s fire season. But ever since the Willamette National Forest was lit up by a barrage of lightning-caused fires on July 29, he and other fire commanders have repeatedly said their strategy was to try containing the infernos until season-ending rains move in from the Pacific Ocean.

The latest National Weather Service forecast suggests that could be happening as soon as this weekend.

“There is no doubt that a significant rain event will arrive by Saturday,” the agency reported. “This should mostly be a beneficial rain that will put a big dent in this year`s fire season.”

A “dusting” of snow may even be likely in the Cascades above the elevation of 6,000 feet, the forecast said.

And all those fans going to the Ducks’ game? They’ll need rain ponchos, which the University of Oregon Athletic Department says should be yellow this time — the same as firefighters wear.